Is the future direction of e-cigarettes big or small?
Is the future direction of e-cigarettes big or small? In the past year, there have been small fireworks and the smoke has faded. As we all know, small smoke is the mainstream now. Manufacturers who did not like small cigarettes before also began to make small cigarettes; Consumers who had previously despised small cigarettes also used small cigarettes. It is easy for us to predict the future of small cigarettes in the coming year.
So, will e-cigarettes dominate the market in the next three years, or will big cigarettes continue to go crazy?
"Big cigarettes have always been a niche product for players. As e-cigarettes are becoming more and more popular, will the wind vane of the e-cigarette market in the next three years be changed to small cigarettes?" This is a question from a netizen in Zhihu.
This is also a question many e-cigarette practitioners want to ask.
For this question, it is not a single line thinking answer of "can" or "can't", which requires sufficient and necessary conditions in all aspects. On Zhihu, we answered from different angles. These answers provide a good perspective of thinking and help to understand the future market trend; Among them, there are also some people with profound insights.
Is the future direction of e-cigarettes big or small?
In the future, small cigarettes will dominate the market, but it will be difficult to complete this transition in three years. Even in the countries with the best development of e-cigarette industry, it is hard to say that they can compete at best. It is not so much that we will witness the decline of the big cigarette market as the rise of the smokers' market. The smoker's market can't become a big thing by relying on fancy and big smoke, and only small smoke can undertake this mission.
The development of small cigarettes can not avoid a problem, that is, the upcoming love and hate between your industry and tobacco giants. The big cigarette market and its user composition cannot support the development ambition of the e-cigarette industry, nor does it conform to the original intention of the industry.
Why is it called revolution? Whose life is it?
The market of small cigarettes is in the vast number of smokers, and the market of large cigarettes is in the electronic cigarette players or enthusiasts. There is still room for exploration and innovation for small smoke. The big smoke feels weak in its follow-up, and the taste is not bad. It is just that the non core functions such as shape and power size are similar, and there is little room for innovation. Small cigarettes are different. There is still a lot of room for taste, portability and use cost.
Xiao Yucheng said:
I personally think that the potential of small smoke is huge. Returning to the essence of smoking, large smoke is not the core demand. For a wide range of users, the cost, portability, standardization and replaceability of small cigarettes are far better than those of large cigarette hosts. Just like the relationship between traditional cigarettes and pipes. The pipe can be placed at home and smoked slowly. It is convenient to smoke when you go out.
This problem can be viewed from the user's usage habits. In the future, small cigarettes should be the mainstream, but it is still early.
Bear's father said in a good temper:
The popularity is far from enough. I haven't played with the new type of small cigarette. If the cost, taste and endurance are not good, it will be difficult to popularize! In the future, big smoke will exist among fans and players.
Why is it famous to say:
The e-cigarette market as a whole can be divided into two markets, one is the market for smokers; One is the vape market, that is, the market dominated by playing.
A. As more and more people pay attention to environmental protection and health issues, the market of substitute smokers, which is what we call the traditional smoking cessation market, is bound to exist and is a large incremental market. There are 400 million smokers in China. Think about how big the Chinese market will be if 1% of them consider smoking and quitting. However, at the first stage, due to the influence of policies, the promotion channels only exist at the e-commerce level, so the audience is still small. As time goes on, the whole market can only be opened with the investment and promotion of China tobacco group.
B. Vape market, this is the e-cigarette player market, the big smoke market. The vape circle is characterized by people's play. Young people account for the majority. The market increment is smaller than that of the substitute cigarette market. However, at present, it is the vape circle that promotes the whole e-cigarette.
In the future market, the market of substitute smokers has greater potential in China and the vape market has greater potential abroad.
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